Deadly Turmoil in Guinea Increases Uncertainty over Leadership and Mining Sector

Revenue Watch Institute and its partners in Africa and across the globe were saddened and alarmed by the tragic events this week in Guinea, which remains in political turmoil after a September 28 protest turned into a brutal attack on demonstrators by soldiers of the ruling junta.

More than 150 people were reportedly killed and 1,200 others wounded and abused at a stadium where 50,000 had gathered to protest the possible candidacy of military leader Moussa Dadis Camara in the upcoming presidential election. The ruling junta took power in late 2008 with the promise that, to aid a return to constitutional order, none of their members would seek office in the next elections, and that those elections would be free and transparent.

The junta also had raised hopes among Guineans by announcing its determination to end the plague of corruption and the siphoning and embezzlement of mining sector funds. Guinea is a rich mining country with huge reserves of bauxite, iron and gold, as well as sources of diamonds, uranium and potentially oil.

Guinea's mining sector accounts for more than 60% of exports, which represent 15-20% of GDP and 25% of government revenue. However, over the 50 years since Guinean independence, these revenues have not helped to improve living conditions for the average citizen. Instead they have served as an instrument of control and a means for leaders to maintain their power. According to the UNDP, 40% of the population lives below poverty line and Guinea ranks 160th out of 177 in the Human Development Index.

Civil society groups had mobilized in 2007 to demand good governance, measures to combat corruption and increased transparency from the government, but they paid a high price in lost lives after an army crackdown. The protests led to promises of reform by the former government, in sectors including mining, but these promises proved illusory, and the country remained on the path of patronage and corruption that had dominated Guinean life for decades. When the junta came to power in late 2008, it declared a commitment to clean up the system and maximize the use of mining income for development. It also made the initial promise to retain power only long enough to organize new elections. These promises in part explain the broad popular support that the military enjoyed early in its reign.

One of 30 candidate countries in the international Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative (EITI), Guinea is currently preparing for the internal assessment and validation process that is required for final EITI approval of "compliance." However, the current upheaval could threaten the timely completion of these steps by the March 2010 deadline. A full and open collaboration between government and civil society groups is one of the key principles of the EITI.

Though uncertainty grows about who will be leading Guinea in a few months' time, the military government nevertheless continues to make extractive sector decisions with potential long-term implications for revenue and national development.  The junta took a major step in Guinea's dispute with Russian company Rusal when it seized an aluminum complex last month. It also recently signed a memorandum of understanding with Hyperdynamics Corporation, reaffirming the concession the company had signed with the previous regime for offshore oil exploration rights.

Though it is impossible to predict with certainty the long-term impact of these or similar decisions currently under consideration by the military regime, periods of political upheaval, poor public dialogue, and uncertainty in government have often proven to be incompatible with economic improvements that confer long-term benefits on citizens. In the case of Guinea in particular, rulers must begin by respecting human life and human rights, in addition to seeking ways to turn natural resources into lasting national wealth.